Something important, something troubling, and something dangerous
The important thing first. I predicted who would win the Wisconsin primary, although my prediction suggested that Sanders would do better than he did. (He underperformed.) I predicted the outcome of...
View ArticleThe Nation Corrects Vox on Sanders Tax Hike
A while back Vox produced a tax modeler that would tell you how your taxes would change with Sanders plan. It raised most people’s taxes by a few thousand dollars. But the modeling was misleading...
View ArticleWho Will Win The New York Democratic Primary?
As you know, I’ve been applying a model to predict the outcome of each of the Democratic Primary contests, and have done pretty well at predicting results. All of the future contests are primaries, not...
View ArticleWho Won The New York Democratic Primary, and Why?
I don’t know yet, but as soon as I do, I’ll post that below. With 98.5% of the delegates counted, Clinton won 57.9% of the vote, Sanders 42.1%. This puts Clinton at 139 delegates, very close to my...
View ArticleTuesday’s Democratic Primaries: Clinton favored in all polls, but Sanders...
Between now and the end of the primary season, I expect Sanders to pick up more delegates than Clinton, in total, by a very small margin. On Tuesday, April 26th, there will be primaries in Connecticut,...
View ArticleHow Bernie Sanders Lost Nevada Four Times
First, Sanders lost Nevada because Hillary Clinton won the caucus. Then, the Sanders campaign put their ground game into effect, in an effort to overtake Clinton during the nearly-unique-to-Nevada...
View ArticleWho Won The California, New Jersey and Other Democratic Primaries?
And, how did my model do? There was a lot of talk about California, and a lot of back and forth, but in the end I stuck with my original model to predict the outcome of that race. See the table above...
View ArticleIf Bernie Sanders was Playing Poker He Would Not Fold
Since 1968, about 17 candidates ran in Democratic primary races and earned enough votes (above about 20% all told) to count as having been contenders. Of those, one was murdered, one was shot but...
View ArticleDon’t Be Confused With A Trumpo-Russian Troll: Chances Are You Already Have...
… if you are doing what a lot of people are doing on the Internet. Being wrong!!!! The Russian organized and operated trolls that will attempt to ruin the 2020 election will sow divisions among...
View ArticleThe Story of Bernie and Joe, as told by the polls
Here is a graph showing polling for Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. See below for some important details. The numbers used for this graph come from 38 national polls asking for voter preference about a...
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